Gene

Demography

Biology

Adenocarcinoma

Mutation

Pancreatic cancer

Environmental health

Asymptomatic

Genetics

Physics

Optics

Population

Family medicine

Internal medicine

Sociology

Oncology

Medicine

Proband

Incidence (geometry)

Cancer

Digestive and Liver Disease

Background PancPRO is a computer program that estimates the risk of pancreatic cancer for asymptomatic individuals based on a genetic model of susceptibility and the familial incidence of cancer. Aim To evaluate the distribution of the familial risk in a series of incident cases of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Materials and methods The lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer was calculated by PancPro for a hypothetical 40-year-old son of 570 consecutive probands with pancreatic cancer. Results The 570 risk values were included between 1% and 13%. The distribution was bimodal, with the antimode located at risk = 7.5%. Considering a 10-fold risk over the general population as a threshold for including a subject in a surveillance program, 19 families (3.3%) would be selected, totalling 92 first-degree relatives with age >40 years. Conclusions PancPro is a valid instrument to rank families based on risk of pancreatic cancer.

“PancPro” as a tool for selecting families eligible for pancreatic cancer screening: An Italian study of incident cases