Overprecision increases subsequent surprise.

Published on Jul 8, 2020in PLOS ONE2.74
· DOI :10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0227084
Don A. Moore53
Estimated H-index: 53
(University of California, Berkeley),
Derek Schatz1
Estimated H-index: 1
(Accenture)
+ -1 AuthorsDerek Schatz1
Estimated H-index: 1
(Accenture)
Sources
Abstract
Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment. Participants reported ex-ante confidence in their beliefs, and after receiving accuracy feedback, they then reported ex-post surprise. Results show that more ex-ante confidence produces less ex-post surprise for correct answers; this relationship reverses for incorrect answers. However, this sensible pattern only holds for some measures of confidence; it fails for confidence-interval measures. The results can help explain the robust durability of overprecision in judgment.
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