Don A. Moore
University of California, Berkeley
Calibration (statistics)Social perceptionEconometricsPsychologyEgocentrismActuarial scienceEconomicsCognitionMicroeconomicsPolitical scienceSocial comparison theoryCognitive psychologyNegotiationCompetition (economics)Better than averageAffect (psychology)Public relationsComputer scienceSelf-confidenceOverconfidence effectSocial psychology
182Publications
53H-index
7,605Citations
Publications 160
Newest
#1Don A. Moore (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 53
The leadership literature is replete with admonitions that successful leadership requires confidence. While that may be true, striving for greater confidence runs the risk of overconfidence. Overco...
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#1Joey T. Cheng (York University)H-Index: 16
#2Cameron Anderson (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 35
Last. Jennifer Marie Logg (Georgetown University)
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We propose and test the overconfidence transmission hypothesis, which predicts that individuals calibrate their self-assessments in response to the confidence others display in their social group. Six studies that deploy a mix of correlational and experimental methods support this hypothesis. Evidence indicates that individuals randomly assigned to collaborate in laboratory dyads converged on levels of overconfidence about their own performance rankings. In a controlled experimental context, obs...
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#1Charles R. EbersoleH-Index: 12
#2Brian A. NosekH-Index: 2
Last. Brian A. Nosek (UVA: University of Virginia)H-Index: 93
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Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the pheno...
#1Maya B. Mathur (Stanford University)H-Index: 18
#2Diane-Jo Bart-Plange (UVA: University of Virginia)H-Index: 2
Last. Alan Jern (RHIT: Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology)H-Index: 10
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Risen and Gilovich (2008) found that subjects believed that “tempting fate” would be punished with ironic bad outcomes (a main effect), and that this effect was magnified when subjects were under c...
1 CitationsSource
Last. Don A. MooreH-Index: 53
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#1Don A. Moore (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 53
#2Derek Schatz (Accenture)H-Index: 1
Last. Derek Schatz (Accenture)H-Index: 1
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Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment. Participants reported ex-ante confidence in their beliefs, and after receiving accuracy feedback, they then reported ex-post surprise. Results show that more ex-ante confidence produces less ex-post surprise for correct answers; this relationship reverses for incorrect answer...
1 CitationsSource
#1Garret Christensen (United States Census Bureau)H-Index: 6
#2Allan Dafoe (University of Oxford)H-Index: 17
Last. Andrew K. Rose (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 94
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This study estimates the effect of data sharing on the citations of academic articles, using journal policies as a natural experiment. We begin by examining 17 high-impact journals that have adopted the requirement that data from published articles be publicly posted. We match these 17 journals to 13 journals without policy changes and find that empirical articles published just before their change in editorial policy have citation rates with no statistically significant difference from those pu...
7 CitationsSource
#1Derek Schatz (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 1
#2Don A. Moore (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 53
Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment. Participants reported ex-ante confidence in their beliefs, and after receiving accuracy feedback, they then reported ex-post surprise. Results show that more ex-ante confidence produces less ex-post surprise for correct answers; this relationship reverses for incorrect answer...
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#1Don A. MooreH-Index: 53
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#1Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
#2Asa PalleyH-Index: 4
Last. Don A. Moore (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 53
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Quantifying uncertainty in the form of a probability distribution is a critical step in many managerial decision problems. However, a large body of previous work has documented pervasive overconfidence in subjective probability distributions (SPDs). We develop new methods to analyze judgments about variables which entail both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty and, in three experiments, study the quality of people’s SPDs in such settings. We find that although SPDs roughly match the aleatory con...
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