Review paper
Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition
Abstract
This research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research examines its progression over long periods of time or in consequential policy domains. This study employs a unique data set from a geopolitical forecasting tournament spanning three years in which thousands of forecasters predicted the outcomes of hundreds of events....
Paper Details
Title
Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition
Published Date
Nov 1, 2017
Journal
Volume
63
Issue
11
Pages
3552 - 3565
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