QCOVID in Scotland: time to recalibrate our expectations?

The field of prediction modelling has exploded during the COVID-19 pandemic, with countless studies seeking to derive and/or validate models to assist diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 or to predict clinical outcomes of infection. While the vast majority of reports have been of a poor standard,1 there have been some examples of higher quality work, including the QCOVID prognostic model.2 Whereas most prediction models are intended to predict a single...