Retrospective and prospective hindsight bias: Replications and extensions of Fischhoff (1975) and Slovic and Fischhoff (1977)

Hindsight bias refers to the tendency to perceive an event outcome as more probable after being informed of that outcome. We conducted very close replications of two classic experiments of hindsight bias and a conceptual replication testing hindsight bias regarding the perceived replicability of hindsight bias. In Study 1 ( N = 890), we replicated Experiment 2 in Fischhoff (1975), and found support for hindsight bias in retrospective judgments (...