Public policy

Nursing

2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

Public health

Social psychology

Virology

Economics

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

Outbreak

Turnover

Business

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Psychology

Management

Public economics

Infectious disease (medical specialty)

Distancing

Medicine

Economic growth

Pandemic

Social distance

Disease

Pathology

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Significance Early in the US COVID-19 epidemic, Americans spent substantially more time at home to reduce cases. Disentangling voluntary from policy-induced behavioral changes is critical for governments grappling with relaxing or renewing restrictions. We estimate the number of additional reported cases that would have been needed to elicit a voluntary behavioral response equivalent to the behavioral response to policy. A substantial share of the observed behavioral response was voluntary. Stay-at-home orders increased the time people spent at home by replacing voluntary actions that likely would have emerged as cases rose. Our analysis is an initial step in answering the critical policy question as to whether fast forwarding the response provides sufficient public health benefits to justify the mandates.

Measuring voluntary and policy-induced social distancing behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic