Viral load and contact heterogeneity predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events

SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to contain because many transmissions occur during pre-symptomatic infection. Unlike influenza, most SARS-CoV-2-infected people do not transmit while a small percentage infect large numbers of people. We designed mathematical models which link observed viral loads with epidemiologic features of each virus, including distribution of transmissions attributed to each infected person and duration between symptom onset in the...