Psychological intervention

2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

Demography

Climatology

Ecology

Biology

Virology

Psychiatry

Telecommunications

Economics

Computer science

Development economics

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

Outbreak

Geology

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Geography

Econometrics

Infectious disease (medical specialty)

Sociology

Environmental science

Medicine

Transmission (telecommunications)

Seasonality

Disease

Pathology

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Significance The virus causing COVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide. It remains unknown whether summer weather will reduce its spread and justify relaxing political interventions and restarting economic activities. We develop statistical models that predict the maximum potential of COVID-19 worldwide and throughout the year. We find that UV light, in particular, is associated with decreased disease growth rate relative to other analyzed factors. Based on these associations with weather, we predict that COVID-19 will decrease temporarily during summer, rebound by autumn, and peak next winter. However, uncertainty remains high, and many factors besides climate, such as social interventions, will influence transmission. Thus, the world must remain vigilant, and continued interventions will likely be needed until a vaccine becomes available.

Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates