A message-passing approach to epidemic tracing and mitigation with apps

Published on Jul 10, 2020in arXiv: Physics and Society
· DOI :10.1103/PHYSREVRESEARCH.3.L012014
Ginestra Bianconi58
Estimated H-index: 58
,
Hanlin Sun4
Estimated H-index: 4
+ 1 AuthorsAlex Arenas70
Estimated H-index: 70
Sources
Abstract
With the hit of new pandemic threats, scientific frameworks are needed to understand the unfolding of the epidemic. At the mitigation stage of the epidemics in which several countries are now, the use of mobile apps that are able to trace contacts is of utmost importance in order to control new infected cases and contain further propagation. Here we present a theoretical approach using both percolation and message--passing techniques, to the role of contact tracing, in mitigating an epidemic wave. We show how the increase of the app adoption level raises the value of the epidemic threshold, which is eventually maximized when high-degree nodes are preferentially targeted. Analytical results are compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations showing good agreement for both homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. These results are important to quantify the level of adoption needed for contact-tracing apps to be effective in mitigating an epidemic.
Figures & Tables
Download
📖 Papers frequently viewed together
2015
9 Citations
2015
1 Author (Chao Chen)
References26
Newest
#1Luca Ferretti (University of Oxford)H-Index: 24
#2Chris Wymant (University of Oxford)H-Index: 20
Last. Christophe Fraser (University of Oxford)H-Index: 80
view all 9 authors...
The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact-tracing needed to stop the epidemic. We conclude that viral spread is too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, but could be controlled if this process was faster, m...
1,443 CitationsSource
#1Matteo Chinazzi (NU: Northeastern University)H-Index: 15
#2Jessica T. Davis (NU: Northeastern University)H-Index: 10
Last. Alessandro Vespignani (NU: Northeastern University)H-Index: 118
view all 16 authors...
Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression...
1,759 CitationsSource
Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas and infectious diseases now to spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like processes, there is a need to predict the speed of a particular contagion in a particular network, and to distinguish between nodes that are more likely to become infected sooner or later during an outbreak. Here, we study these quantities using a message-passing app...
28 CitationsSource
#1George T. Cantwell (UM: University of Michigan)H-Index: 8
#2Mark Newman (UM: University of Michigan)H-Index: 125
In this paper we offer a solution to a long-standing problem in the study of networks. Message passing is a fundamental technique for calculations on networks and graphs. The first versions of the method appeared in the 1930s and over the decades it has been applied to a wide range of foundational problems in mathematics, physics, computer science, statistics, and machine learning, including Bayesian inference, spin models, coloring, satisfiability, graph partitioning, network epidemiology, and ...
24 CitationsSource
#1Filippo RadicchiH-Index: 37
#2Ginestra Bianconi (QMUL: Queen Mary University of London)H-Index: 58
In the analysis of the robustness of multiplex networks, it is commonly assumed that a node is functioning only if its interdependent nodes are simultaneously functioning. According to this model, a multiplex network becomes more and more fragile as the number of layers increases. In this respect, the addition of a new layer of interdependent nodes to a preexisting multiplex network will never improve its robustness. Whereas such a model seems appropriate to understand the effect of interdepende...
55 CitationsSource
In the analysis of the robustness of multiplex networks, it is commonly assumed that a node is functioning only if its interdependent nodes are simultaneously functioning. According to this model, a multiplex network becomes more and more fragile as the number of layers increases. In this respect, the addition of a new layer of interdependent nodes to a preexisting multiplex network will never improve its robustness. Whereas such a model seems appropriate to understand the effect of interdepende...
36 CitationsSource
#5Yi-Cheng Zhang (University of Electronic Science and Technology of China)H-Index: 8
Abstract Real networks exhibit heterogeneous nature with nodes playing far different roles in structure and function. To identify vital nodes is thus very significant, allowing us to control the outbreak of epidemics, to conduct advertisements for e-commercial products, to predict popular scientific publications, and so on. The vital nodes identification attracts increasing attentions from both computer science and physical societies, with algorithms ranging from simply counting the immediate ne...
611 CitationsSource
#1Salomon Mugisha (CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)H-Index: 1
#2Hai-Jun Zhou (CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)H-Index: 23
For a network formed by nodes and undirected links between pairs of nodes, the network optimal attack problem aims at deleting a minimum number of target nodes to break the network down into many small components. This problem is intrinsically related to the feedback vertex set problem that was successfully tackled by spin-glass theory and an associated belief propagation-guided decimation (BPD) algorithm [Zhou, Eur. Phys. J. B 86, 455 (2013)]. In the present work we apply the BPD algorithm (whi...
93 CitationsSource
#1Romualdo Pastor-Satorras (UPC: Polytechnic University of Catalonia)H-Index: 62
#2Claudio CastellanoH-Index: 61
Last. Alessandro Vespignani (NU: Northeastern University)H-Index: 118
view all 4 authors...
In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theo...
2,119 CitationsSource
#1Flaviano Morone (CCNY: City College of New York)H-Index: 15
#2Hernán A. Makse (CCNY: City College of New York)H-Index: 64
A rigorous method to determine the most influential superspreaders in complex networks is presented—involving the mapping of the problem onto optimal percolation along with a scalable algorithm for big-data social networks—showing, unexpectedly, that many weak nodes can be powerful influencers.
657 CitationsSource
Cited By19
Newest
Last. Moritz HeliasH-Index: 24
view all 6 authors...
Networks with fat-tailed degree distributions are omnipresent across many scientific disciplines. Such systems are characterized by so-called hubs, specific nodes with high numbers of connections to other nodes. By this property, they are expected to be key to the collective network behavior, e.g., in Ising models on such complex topologies. This applies in particular to the transition into a globally ordered network state, which thereby proceeds in a hierarchical fashion, and with a non-trivial...
Source
#1Anastasia Kozyreva (MPG: Max Planck Society)H-Index: 3
#2Philipp Lorenz-Spreen (MPG: Max Planck Society)H-Index: 4
Last. Ralph Hertwig (MPG: Max Planck Society)H-Index: 68
view all 7 authors...
The COVID-19 pandemic has seen one of the first large-scale uses of digital contact tracing to track a chain of infection and contain the spread of a virus. The new technology has posed challenges both for governments aiming at high and effective uptake and for citizens weighing its benefits (e.g., protecting others’ health) against the potential risks (e.g., loss of data privacy). Our cross-sectional survey with repeated measures across four samples in Germany ( null null null null null null nu...
Source
#1Vasiliy OsipovH-Index: 4
#2Sergey V. KuleshovH-Index: 2
Last. Alexey G. AksenovH-Index: 10
view all 4 authors...
Source
#1Giulio Burgio (URV: Rovira i Virgili University)H-Index: 3
#2Benjamin Steinegger (URV: Rovira i Virgili University)H-Index: 4
Last. Alex Arenas (URV: Rovira i Virgili University)H-Index: 70
view all 4 authors...
Source
#1Angelique Burdinski (Humboldt University of Berlin)
#2Dirk Brockmann (Humboldt University of Berlin)H-Index: 26
Last. Benjamin F. Maier (Humboldt University of Berlin)H-Index: 8
view all 3 authors...
Digital contact tracing applications have been introduced in many countries to aid in the containment of COVID-19 outbreaks. Initially, enthusiasm was high regarding their implementation as a non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI). Yet, no country was able to prevent larger outbreaks without falling back to harsher NPIs, and the total effect of digital contact tracing remains elusive. Based on the results of empirical studies and modeling efforts, we show that digital contact tracing apps might h...
1 CitationsSource
The control of Covid 19 epidemics by public health policy in Italy during the first and the second epidemic waves has been driven by using reproductive number Rt(t) to identify the supercritical (percolative), the subcritical (arrested), separated by the critical regime. Here we show that to quantify the Covid-19 spreading rate with containment measures there is a need of a 3D expanded parameter space phase diagram built by the combination of Rt(t) and doubling time Td(t). In this space we ident...
2 CitationsSource
Infectious diseases that incorporate pre-symptomatic transmission are challenging to monitor, model, predict and contain. We address this scenario by studying a variant of a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model on arbitrary network instances using an analytical framework based on the method of dynamic message-passing. This framework provides a good estimate of the probabilistic evolution of the spread on both static and contact networks, offering a significantly improved accur...
Source
#1Giulio BurgioH-Index: 3
Last. Alex ArenasH-Index: 70
view all 4 authors...
We study how homophily of human physical interactions affects the efficacy of digital proximity tracing. Analytical results show a non monotonous dependence of the reproduction number with respect to the mixing rate between individuals that adopt the contact tracing app and the ones that do not. Furthermore, we find regimes in which the attack rate has local optima, minima or monotonously varies with the mixing rate. We corroborate our findings with Monte Carlo simulations on a primary-school ne...
1 CitationsSource
#1Aleix BassolasH-Index: 6
#2Andrea SantoroH-Index: 4
Last. Vincenzo NicosiaH-Index: 30
view all 5 authors...
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is the first epidemic in human history in which digital contact-tracing has been deployed at a global scale. Tracking and quarantining all the contacts of individuals who test positive to a virus can help slowing-down an epidemic, but the impact of contact-tracing is severely limited by the generally low adoption of contact-tracing apps in the population. We derive here an analytical expression for the effectiveness of contact-tracing app installation strategies in ...
1 Citations
#1Adriana Reyna-Lara (University of Zaragoza)H-Index: 2
#2David Soriano-Paños (University of Zaragoza)H-Index: 9
Last. Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes (Kobe University)H-Index: 56
view all 8 authors...
The authors model contact tracing as a secondary contagion process that competes with that of the pathogen, thus effectively breaking transmission chains, and show that contact tracing allows to bend the curve.
10 CitationsSource