A message-passing approach to epidemic tracing and mitigation with apps

Published on Jul 10, 2020in arXiv: Physics and Society
· DOI :10.1103/PHYSREVRESEARCH.3.L012014
Ginestra Bianconi58
Estimated H-index: 58
Hanlin Sun4
Estimated H-index: 4
+ 1 AuthorsAlex Arenas70
Estimated H-index: 70
With the hit of new pandemic threats, scientific frameworks are needed to understand the unfolding of the epidemic. At the mitigation stage of the epidemics in which several countries are now, the use of mobile apps that are able to trace contacts is of utmost importance in order to control new infected cases and contain further propagation. Here we present a theoretical approach using both percolation and message--passing techniques, to the role of contact tracing, in mitigating an epidemic wave. We show how the increase of the app adoption level raises the value of the epidemic threshold, which is eventually maximized when high-degree nodes are preferentially targeted. Analytical results are compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations showing good agreement for both homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. These results are important to quantify the level of adoption needed for contact-tracing apps to be effective in mitigating an epidemic.
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