Lack of seasonality in occurrence of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis.

Published on Jul 10, 2019in Annals of Epidemiology2.573
· DOI :10.1016/J.ANNEPIDEM.2019.07.005
Nils Skajaa3
Estimated H-index: 3
(Aarhus University Hospital),
Erzsébet Horváth-Puhó32
Estimated H-index: 32
(Aarhus University Hospital)
+ 3 AuthorsHenrik Toft Sørensen146
Estimated H-index: 146
(Aarhus University Hospital)
Abstract Purpose The etiology of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis is predominantly infectious, and infections often show seasonal variation. Little is known, however, about seasonal patterns in these cardiopathies. Methods Using Danish health care registries, we identified all patients with a first-time hospital-based diagnosis of pericarditis, myocarditis, or endocarditis between 1994 and 2016. We estimated peak-to-trough ratios from fitted sine curves to measure the intensity of seasonal variation in occurrence during the study period. Because randomness will lead to small apparent seasonal patterns, we also conducted a plasmode simulation to assess the degree of seasonality that randomness would produce. Results Crude peak-to-trough ratios of monthly frequencies summarized over a year were small. We estimated a peak-to-trough ratio of 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05–1.14) for pericarditis, 1.11 (95% CI: 1.02–1.21) for myocarditis, and 1.01 (95% CI: 1.00–1.07) for endocarditis. The simulated mean peak-to-trough ratios found after randomly re-assigning the monthly frequencies within each year were 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00–1.09) for pericarditis, 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00–1.13) for myocarditis, and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00–1.10), for endocarditis. Conclusion The data indicate no important seasonal variation in occurrence of pericarditis, myocarditis, and endocarditis in Denmark between 1994 and 2016.
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