A Bayesian framework for assessing the strength distribution of composite structures with random defects

This paper presents a novel stochastic framework to quantify the knock down in strength from out-of-plane wrinkles at the coupon level. The key innovation is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm which rigorously derives the stochastic distribution of wrinkle defects directly informed from image data of defects. The approach significantly reduces uncertainty in the parameterization of stochastic numerical studies on the effects of defects. To...