A Better Way to Forecast

Published on Nov 1, 2014in California Management Review
· DOI :10.1525/CMR.2014.57.1.5
Uriel Haran7
Estimated H-index: 7
(BGU: Ben-Gurion University of the Negev),
Don A. Moore53
Estimated H-index: 53
(University of California, Berkeley)
Every business decision depends on making a forecast of the consequences of the decision. Although most organizations do forecasting, most do so badly. They ask either for a point prediction—a single “best guess” forecast, when everyone knows that this is an oversimplification of the truth, or for a simple range forecast, which is likely to result in biased predictions more often than not. In this article, the authors propose a better approach, one that takes seriously the uncertainty in forecasting and the most common errors in the way people think about this uncertainty.
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