Original paper
Overconfidence in Interval Estimates.
Volume: 30, Issue: 2, Pages: 299 - 314
Published: Jan 1, 2004
Abstract
Judges were asked to make numerical estimates (e.g., "In what year was the first flight of a hot air balloon?"). Judges provided high and low estimates such that they were X% sure that the correct answer lay between them. They exhibited substantial overconfidence: The correct answer fell inside their intervals much less than X% of the time. This contrasts with choices between 2 possible answers to a question, which showed much less...
Paper Details
Title
Overconfidence in Interval Estimates.
Published Date
Jan 1, 2004
Volume
30
Issue
2
Pages
299 - 314
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History