Jack B. Soll
Duke University
StatisticsIntuitionProbability distributionPsychologyActuarial scienceEconomicsCognitionCognitive psychologyGroup decision-makingPower (social and political)CrowdsQuality (business)Advice (complexity)Know-howWisdom of crowdsUncertainty quantificationMathematicsComputer scienceOverconfidence effectSocial psychology
39Publications
17H-index
3,109Citations
Publications 37
Newest
#1Sean Fath (Cornell University)H-Index: 2
#1Sean Barrett Fath (Cornell University)
Last. Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
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Source
#1Matthew Asher Lawson (Duke University)
#2Richard P. Larrick (Duke University)H-Index: 37
Last. Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
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Research on judgment and decision making has suggested that the System 2 process of ‘thinking slow’ can help people to improve their decision making by reducing well-established statistical decisio...
Source
#1M. Asher LawsonH-Index: 1
#2Richard P. LarrickH-Index: 37
Last. Jack B. SollH-Index: 17
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Research on judgment and decision making has suggested that the System 2 process of slow thinking can help people to improve their decision making by reducing well-established statistical decision biases (including base rate neglect, probability matching, and the conjunction fallacy). In a large pre-registered study with 1,706 participants and 23,292 unique observations, we compare the effects of individual differences and behavioral interventions to test the relative benefits of slow thinking o...
1 Citations
#1Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
#2Asa PalleyH-Index: 4
Last. Don A. Moore (University of California, Berkeley)H-Index: 53
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Quantifying uncertainty in the form of a probability distribution is a critical step in many managerial decision problems. However, a large body of previous work has documented pervasive overconfidence in subjective probability distributions (SPDs). We develop new methods to analyze judgments about variables which entail both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty and, in three experiments, study the quality of people’s SPDs in such settings. We find that although SPDs roughly match the aleatory con...
Source
#1Asa Palley (IU: Indiana University)H-Index: 4
#2Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
Using the wisdom of crowds—combining many individual judgments to obtain an aggregate estimate—can be an effective technique for improving judgment accuracy. In practice, however, accuracy is limit...
12 CitationsSource
#1Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
#2Asa Palley (IU: Indiana University)H-Index: 4
Last. Christina A. Rader (CC: Colorado College)H-Index: 2
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Much research on advice taking examines how people revise point estimates given input from others. This work has established that people often egocentrically discount advice. If they were to place more weight on advice, their point estimates would be more accurate. Yet the focus on point estimates and accuracy has resulted in a narrow conception of what it means to heed advice. We distinguish between revisions of point estimates and revisions of attendant probability distributions. Point estimat...
#1Christina A. Rader (CC: Colorado College)H-Index: 2
#2Richard P. Larrick (Duke University)H-Index: 37
Last. Jack B. Soll (Duke University)H-Index: 17
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In this article, we ask how well people fulfill informational motives by using the judgments of others. We build on advice-taking research from the judgment and decision making literature, which has developed a distinct paradigm to test how accurately people incorporate information from others. We use a literature review to show that people have mixed success in fulfilling informational motives—they increase their accuracy through the use of advice, but not as much as they could. We develop insi...
13 CitationsSource
#1Don A. MooreH-Index: 53
#2Joshua KlaymanH-Index: 18
Last. Asa PalleyH-Index: 4
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#1Don A. MooreH-Index: 53
#2Jack B. SollH-Index: 17
Last. Asa PalleyH-Index: 4
view all 3 authors...
#1Don A. MooreH-Index: 53
#2Joshua KlaymanH-Index: 18
Last. Asa PalleyH-Index: 4
view all 4 authors...