Climatology

Ecology

Biology

East Asia

Precipitation

China

Archaeology

Geology

Oceanography

Global warming

Climate change

Geography

Environmental science

Subtropical ridge

Medicine

Meteorology

Extreme heat

Subtropics

Tropics

Humid subtropical climate

Pathology

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

SignificanceThe western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) channels moisture from the tropics that underpins the East Asian summer climate. Interannual variability of the WPSH dominates climate extremes in the densely populated countries of East Asia. In 2020, an anomalously strong WPSH led to catastrophic floods with hundreds of deaths, 28,000 homes destroyed, and tens of billions in economic damage in China alone. How the frequency of such strong WPSH events will change is of great societal concern. Our finding of an increase in future WPSH variability, translating into an increased frequency of climate extreme as seen in the 2020 episode, highlights the increased risks for the billions of people in the densely populated East Asia with profound socioeconomic consequences.

Increased variability of the western Pacific subtropical high under greenhouse warming