Boreal

Physical geography

Global warming

Geology

Climate change

Ecology

Global change

Geography

Environmental science

Climatology

Temperate climate

Biology

Taiga

Nature Communications

Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity, but the magnitude and location of change is still unclear. Here, we show that climate largely determines present fire-prone regions and their fire season. We categorize these regions according to the climatic characteristics of their fire season into four classes, within general Boreal, Temperate, Tropical and Arid climate zones. Based on climate model projections, we assess the modification of the fire-prone regions in extent and fire season length at the end of the 21st century. We find that due to global warming, the global area with frequent fire-prone conditions would increase by 29%, mostly in Boreal (+111%) and Temperate (+25%) zones, where there may also be a significant lengthening of the potential fire season. Our estimates of the global expansion of fire-prone areas highlight the large but uneven impact of a warming climate on Earth’s environment. Global climatic fire-prone regions were identified, assessing possible future climate change impacts. A general spatial expansion of these regions and a frequency increase of the fire-prone conditions are expected, especially in Boreal regions.

Spatial and temporal expansion of global wildland fire activity in response to climate change