Predicting future consumer purchases in grocery retailing with the condensed Poisson lognormal model

To identify the effect of marketing actions on consumer purchasing, analysts must disentangle the dynamic component of purchasing from expected period-to-period stochastic fluctuations. This is done by comparing marketplace observations to the conditional expectation of future purchasing. Current methods of deriving the conditional expectation contain systematic bias and rely on certain unrealistic modelling assumptions. We therefore propose a...