Improving target price calculations in Medicare bundled payment programs

To compare the predictive accuracy of two approaches to target price calculations under Bundled Payments for Care Improvement-Advanced (BPCI-A): the traditional Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) methodology and an empirical Bayes approach designed to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean.Medicare fee-for-service claims for beneficiaries discharged from acute care hospitals between 2010 and 2016.We used data from a...