Run-out distance exceedance probability evaluation and hazard zoning of an individual landslide

Due to large uncertainties embedded in their geotechnical parameters, dynamic numerical models of landslide run-out distance can only be reliably applied to conduct post-failure back analyses, rather than accurate physical-based forward predictions. Therefore, it is important to quantify these uncertainties, and their effects, to improve the reliability of predictions. This paper proposes a run-out distance prediction methodology within a...