Superforecasting reality check: Evidence from a small pool of experts and expedited identification

Superforecasting has drawn the attention of academics - despite earlier contradictory findings in the literature, arguing that humans can consistently and successfully forecast over long periods. It has also enthused practitioners, due to the major implications for improving forecast-driven decision-making. The evidence in support of the superforecasting hypothesis was provided via a 4-year project led by Tetlock and Mellers, which was based on...