Quantum mechanics

Epidemic model

2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

Demography

Ecology

Biology

Virology

Particle swarm optimization

Computer science

Mathematical optimization

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

Outbreak

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Physics

Nonlinear system

Mathematics

Quarantine

Econometrics

Population

Infectious disease (medical specialty)

Sociology

Medicine

Disease

Pathology

Nonlinear Dynamics

In this paper, a SEIR epidemic model for the COVID-19 is built according to some general control strategies, such as hospital, quarantine and external input. Based on the data of Hubei province, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied to estimate the parameters of the system. We found that the parameters of the proposed SEIR model are different for different scenarios. Then, the model is employed to show the evolution of the epidemic in Hubei province, which shows that it can be used to forecast COVID-19 epidemic situation. Moreover, by introducing the seasonality and stochastic infection the parameters, nonlinear dynamics including chaos are found in the system. Finally, we discussed the control strategies of the COVID-19 based on the structure and parameters of the proposed model.

SEIR modeling of the COVID-19 and its dynamics