In recent decades new recycling technologies for mixed plastic waste have emerged. In pyrolysis , the polymer chains are thermally broken (pyrolyzed) to obtain hydrocarbon materials of different molecular weights such as naphtha , oil or waxes, whose yields can be controlled by varying the reaction parameters. Naphtha represents a closed-loop recycling process as it is a feedstock for (poly)olefins; while the co-production of waxes, having several applications in e.g. the construction industry, exemplifies an open-loop recycling process. This paper compares the economic performance of the pyrolysis of mixed polyolefin waste in a closed-loop and open-loop scheme, including a probabilistic approach to the most important variables. From an economic perspective, open-loop pyrolysis as presented outperforms closed-loop recycling, due to the high prices of wax. However, the results present a high dispersion caused by the volatility of the prices of crude oil and its derivates. Considering the current oil price projections, our case study analysis showed that for open-loop recycling there is a future probability of almost a 98% of observing positive results and around 57% of probability in the case of closed-loop recycling, under the assumptions made. Yet, in a future scenario where decarbonized electricity would decrease oil prices, the probability of a positive outcome reduces to 57% for the open-loop case and to less than 8% in the case of closed-loop recycling. To make these pathways attractive to investors, the nameplate capacity should be at least 70 kt/year for open-loop recycling and 115 kt/year for closed-loop recycling. A 120 kt/year plant should operate minimally at 80% of its capacity for open-loop recycling, while closed-loop recycling would demand running close to maximum capacity. Security of feedstock supply therefore is required.