A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies

The purpose of this article is to propose a method to minimize the difference between electoral predictions and electoral results. It builds on findings that stem from established democracies, where most of the research has been carried out, but it focuses on filling the gap for developing nations, which have thus far been neglected by the literature. It proposes a two-stage model in which data are first collected, filtered and weighed according...