Re-examining the Higher Predictive Power of D/P and E/P during Recessions

In this study, we examine the differential predictive power of the dividend-price ratio [D/P] and the earnings-price ratio [E/P] for future stock returns during recessions versus during expansionary periods. We find that dividends do not decrease but prices decrease from the expansion periods to the recession periods resulting in the D/P increase during recessions. This increase in D/P during recessions is correlated with the increase in market...