The assessment of intrinsic credibility and a new argument for p < 0.005

The concept of intrinsic credibility has been recently introduced to check the credibility of "out of the blue" findings without any prior support. A significant result is deemed intrinsically credible if it is in conflict with a sceptical prior derived from the very same data that would make the effect non-significant. In this paper I propose to use Bayesian prior-predictive tail probabilities to assess intrinsic credibility. For the standard...