Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble

Projections of future mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. Our aim was to forecast national age-specific mortality and life expectancy using an approach that takes into account the uncertainty related to the choice of forecasting model.We developed an ensemble of 21 forecasting models, all of which probabilistically contributed towards the final projections. We applied this approach to...