Subjective confidence in forecasts
Abstract
Forecasts have little value to decision makers unless it is known how much confidence to place in them. Those expressions of confidence have, in turn, little value unless forecasters are able to assess the limits of their own knowledge accurately Previous research has shown very robust patterns in the judgements of individuals who have not received special training in confidence assessment: Knowledge generally increases as confidence increases....
Paper Details
Title
Subjective confidence in forecasts
Published Date
Apr 1, 1982
Journal
Volume
1
Issue
2
Pages
155 - 172
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Notes
History