Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study
Abstract
Systematic overconfidence by individuals regarding their abilities and prospects could have important economic consequences. But overconfidence has received little direct testing within economics. We use experiments to test for overconfidence in people's forecasts of their absolute or relative performance in two unfamiliar tasks. Given their chosen effort, participants have incentives to forecast accurately, with opportunities for feedback,...
Paper Details
Title
Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study
Published Date
Dec 9, 2008
Journal
Volume
119
Issue
534
Pages
229 - 251
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