Review paper
The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds
Abstract
When several individuals are asked to forecast an uncertain quantity, they often face implicit or explicit incentives to be the most accurate. Despite the desire to elicit honest forecasts, such competition induces forecasters to report strategically and nontruthfully. The question we address is whether the competitive crowd's forecast (the average of strategic forecasts) is more accurate than the truthful crowd's forecast (the average of...
Paper Details
Title
The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds
Published Date
Dec 1, 2013
Journal
Volume
61
Issue
6
Pages
1383 - 1398
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