External validation of new risk prediction models is infrequent and reveals worse prognostic discrimination

To evaluate how often newly developed risk prediction models undergo external validation and how well they perform in such validations.We reviewed derivation studies of newly proposed risk models and their subsequent external validations. Study characteristics, outcome(s), and models' discriminatory performance [area under the curve, (AUC)] in derivation and validation studies were extracted. We estimated the probability of having a validation,...