Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?
Abstract
Election markets have been praised for their ability to forecast election outcomes, and to forecast better than trial-heat polls. This paper challenges that optimistic assessment of election markets, based on an analysis of Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) data from presidential elections between 1988 and 2004. We argue that it is inappropriate to naively compare market forecasts of an election outcome with exact poll results on the day prices are...
Paper Details
Title
Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?
Published Date
May 2, 2008
Journal
Volume
72
Issue
2
Pages
190 - 215
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