Probabilistic analysis of pipelines with corrosion defects by using FITNET FFS procedure

Published on Mar 1, 2011in Corrosion Science6.479
· DOI :10.1016/J.CORSCI.2010.10.014
Guian Qian24
Estimated H-index: 24
(Paul Scherrer Institute),
Markus Niffenegger18
Estimated H-index: 18
(Paul Scherrer Institute),
Shu-Xin Li11
Estimated H-index: 11
(Lanzhou University of Technology)
A probabilistic method based on the corrosion module of the FITNET FFS procedure is presented to perform the structural integrity analysis for pipelines. The comparison of the failure pressure determined by both deterministic and probabilistic methods shows that even for a high safety factor, the deterministic method may predict nonconservative results. FITNET FFS procedure predicts a similar probability to that given by the Shell-92 model. The sensitivity analysis of both the uncertainty of the variables and the underlying model shows that the corrosion depth has the most significant contribution to the pipeline failure at an inspection interval of 8 years.
📖 Papers frequently viewed together
159 Citations
176 Citations
90 Citations
#1T. Breton (Institut Français)H-Index: 1
#2J. C. Sanchez-Gheno (Pemex)H-Index: 1
Last. Jose Alvarez-Ramirez (UAM: Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana)H-Index: 53
view all 4 authors...
Spillover of hazardous materials from transport pipelines can lead to catastrophic events with serious and dangerous environmental impact, potential fire events and human fatalities. The problem is more serious for large pipelines when the construction material is under environmental corrosion conditions, as in the petroleum and gas industries. In this way, predictive models can provide a suitable framework for risk evaluation, maintenance policies and substitution procedure design that should b...
28 CitationsSource
#1Shu-Xin Li (Lanzhou University of Technology)H-Index: 11
#2Hai-Long Zeng (Lanzhou University of Technology)H-Index: 2
Last. Long Yu (Lanzhou University of Technology)H-Index: 1
view all 7 authors...
A method of probabilistic analysis is presented to consider effect of correlation of corrosion defects on steel pipeline failure. Failure probability of pipeline with correlated corrosion defects is modeled and compared with results from conventional method. The results showed that assumption of independent corrosion defects will lead to conservative results. The calculated results are within Ditlevsen bimodal bounds. This indicates the validity and feasibility of the proposed method. The combin...
24 CitationsSource
#1Francisco Caleyo (ESIQIE)H-Index: 19
#2J. C. Velázquez (ESIQIE)H-Index: 9
Last. J. M. Hallen (ESIQIE)H-Index: 21
view all 4 authors...
The probability distributions of external-corrosion pit depth and pit growth rate were investigated in underground pipelines using Monte Carlo simulations. The study combines a predictive pit growth model developed by the authors with the observed distributions of the model variables in a range of soils. Depending on the pipeline age, any of the three maximal extreme value distributions, i.e. Weibull, Frechet or Gumbel, can arise as the best fit to the pitting depth and rate data. The Frechet di...
153 CitationsSource
The paper provides another insight into the pipeline risk assessment for in-service pressure piping containing defects. Beside of the traditional analytical approximation methods or sampling-based methods safety index and failure probability of pressure piping containing defects will be obtained based on a novel type of support vector machine developed in a minimax manner. The safety index or failure probability is carried out based on a binary classification approach. The procedure named classi...
10 CitationsSource
#1Sergio Cicero (UC: University of Cantabria)H-Index: 16
#2Roberto Lacalle (UC: University of Cantabria)H-Index: 12
Last. Diego Ferreño (UC: University of Cantabria)H-Index: 10
view all 4 authors...
This paper analyses the structural integrity of the marine stretch of a pipeline which is placed over a natural bay. The pipeline is part of a 30-year-old installation used for the provision of petrochemical products to a nearby chemical plant. Although there have been no relevant leaks in the past, both the visual inspections performed (revealing numerous local thin areas) and the fact that it is located in a highly sensitive place with high ecological and tourist value recommend the assessment...
9 CitationsSource
#1Shu-Xin Li (Lanzhou University of Technology)H-Index: 1
#2Shu-Rong Yu (Lanzhou University of Technology)H-Index: 1
Last. Rui Liang (Lanzhou University of Technology)H-Index: 2
view all 5 authors...
A methodology is presented for predicting corrosion remaining life of underground pipelines with a mechanically-based probabilistic model by taking effect of randomness into account in pipeline corrosion. Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to calculate the remaining life and its cumulative distribution function (CDF). The sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most important parameters that affect pipeline failure. The results show that the corrosion defect depth and radial ...
97 CitationsSource
#1A.P. Teixeira (Technical University of Lisbon)H-Index: 15
#2C. Guedes Soares (Technical University of Lisbon)H-Index: 87
Last. Segen F. Estefen (UFRJ: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro)H-Index: 20
view all 4 authors...
This paper aims at assessing the reliability of pipelines with corrosion defects subjected to internal pressure using the first-order reliability method (FORM). The limit-state function is defined based on the results of a series of small-scale experiments and three-dimensional non-linear finite element analysis of the burst pressure of intact and corroded pipelines. A sensitivity analysis is performed for different levels of corrosion damage to identify the influence of the various parameters i...
159 CitationsSource
#1Robert E. Melchers (University of Newcastle)H-Index: 62
#2R. Jeffrey (University of Newcastle)H-Index: 15
Abstract With the increasing emphasis on attempting to retain in service ageing infrastructure models for the description and prediction of corrosion losses and for maximum pit depth are of increasing interest. In most cases assessment and prediction will be done in a probabilistic risk assessment framework and this then requires probabilistic corrosion models. Recently, novel models for corrosion loss and maximum pit depth under marine immersion conditions have been developed. The models show t...
56 CitationsSource
#1Frédéric Duprat (INSA: Intelligence and National Security Alliance)H-Index: 12
#2Alain Sellier (INSA: Intelligence and National Security Alliance)H-Index: 27
Abstract A study about a probabilistic approach to corrosion risk of reinforcements embedded in concrete due to carbonation is presented. The carbonation model is based on a single non-linear diffusion equation of the carbon dioxide. A global balance relationship between the carbon dioxide partial pressure and the solid calcium content in the hydrates of concrete is used in order to express the sink term of the equation and to render the solving easily tractable in a classical finite element ana...
50 CitationsSource
#1Robert E. Melchers (University of Newcastle)H-Index: 62
Abstract This paper considers essential theoretical concepts and data requirements for engineering structural reliability assessment suitable for the estimation of the safety and reliability of corroding ships, offshore structures and pipelines. Such infrastructure operates in a harsh environment. Allowance must be made for structural deterioration since protective measures such as paint coatings, galvanizing or cathodic protection may be ineffective. Reliability analysis requires accurate engin...
142 CitationsSource
Cited By42
#1Wang Huakun (Ha Tai: Xiamen University)
#2Yang Yu (TJU: Tianjin University)H-Index: 12
Last. Yu SizheH-Index: 1
view all 5 authors...
Abstract null null This study aims at assessing the time-variant burst strength of pipe with corrosion defects under high internal pressure. A new numerical model was developed, where the mechano-electrochemical interaction was considered in a simplified manner. The damage evolution of corrosion, which was governed by a stress corrosion model, was realized by a user defined UMESHMOTION subroutine. The time-variant corrosion morphology and burst strength can be obtained using the numerical model....
#1Sidum Adumene (MUN: Memorial University of Newfoundland)H-Index: 4
#2Faisal Khan (MUN: Memorial University of Newfoundland)H-Index: 84
Last. Sohrab Zendehboudi (St. John's University)H-Index: 33
view all 4 authors...
Abstract null null The stochastic nature of microbial corrosion creates spatial interdependencies among random corrosion parameters and their failure modes. These interdependencies need to be captured for robust offshore system reliability prediction considering complex multispecies biofilms. null This research paper presents a hybrid methodology for the prediction of system reliability, considering multiple failure modes’ interdependencies. The methodology integrates the Bayesian Network with C...
1 CitationsSource
#2Faisal Khan (A&M: Texas A&M University)H-Index: 1
Abstract null null This paper presents a methodology that integrates the semi-empirical corrosion models with probabilistic analysis to study steel structural failure behavior considering material and parametric uncertainties. The semi-empirical models are used to assess the asset's susceptibility, system degradation rate, and defect growth over time under harsh corrosive environment. The developed model is translated into a limit state function in a probabilistic framework to define the asset's...
#1Zhengquan Wang (CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)H-Index: 1
#2Ziyang Zhou (CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)H-Index: 1
Last. Yanliang HuangH-Index: 9
view all 9 authors...
Corrosion had aroused extensive concern and attention because it was an unavoidable problem for marine equipment and facilities in service. However, the current status and development trend of marine environment corrosion research had seldom been systematically studied. Therefore, it was encouraged to use bibliometrics and information visualization analysis methods to conduct bibliometric analysis of related publications in the field of marine environment corrosion based on HistCite, CiteSpace, ...
#1Yueqiang Zhu (Xi'an Jiaotong University)
#2Peng Wang (BIPT: Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology)H-Index: 5
Last. Zhiguo Qu (Xi'an Jiaotong University)H-Index: 41
view all 6 authors...
Abstract: Pipeline networks are the primary means of natural gas transmission, and assessing the gas supply reliability is of great significance for the safe and stable operation of pipeline networks. However, current assessment researches for the gas supply reliability are just conducted on the entire pipeline networks and based on the failed pipeline networks, i.e. the assessment process is static. The individual difference differences among users and the reparability of pipeline networks are ...
#1Mindong Chen (USTB: University of Science and Technology Beijing)
#2Kun Pang (USTB: University of Science and Technology Beijing)H-Index: 1
Last. Fan Zhang (USTB: University of Science and Technology Beijing)
view all 5 authors...
Pitting morphologies of E690 low-alloy steel in industrial and non-industrial marine splash zones are statistically analyzed, including the influence of plastic deformation. Results show that in a marine splash zone, E690 low-alloy steel experiences severe uniform corrosion and pitting corrosion, and the corrosion is more severe in the high-temperature non-industrial environment. The relationship between the pitting area changes and the depth can be well fitted to the Boltzmann cumulative distri...
#1Chaoqun Zeng (SZU: Shenzhen University)H-Index: 2
#2Ji-Hua Zhu (SZU: Shenzhen University)H-Index: 18
Last. Joost Walraven (TU Delft: Delft University of Technology)H-Index: 24
view all 6 authors...
Abstract An analytical model was developed to predict the tensile behaviour of a corroded steel bar. The model was established based on cross sectional analysis and was validated using experimental data for slotted steel bars and electrochemically corroded steel bars. The model was further used to predict the tensile behaviour of a corroded steel bar. The corrosion mode of the steel bar was supposed to be pitting corrosion and the distribution of the corroded section was supposed to follow a log...
2 CitationsSource
#1Selene I. Capula Colindres (IPN: Instituto Politécnico Nacional)H-Index: 2
#2Gerardo Terán Méndez (IPN: Instituto Politécnico Nacional)H-Index: 3
Last. D. Angeles-HerreraH-Index: 5
view all 5 authors...
This study presents, for the first time, the mechanical behavior of API 5L pipeline steels X42, X52, X60, X70, X80, and X100 with external and internal corrosion defects as well as a combination of...
1 CitationsSource
#1Kai Wen (China University of Petroleum)H-Index: 3
#2Lei He (China University of Petroleum)H-Index: 3
Last. Jing Gong (China University of Petroleum)H-Index: 19
view all 4 authors...
Abstract A fast calculation of the reliability is meaningful to the in-line inspection of corroding natural gas pipelines. However, the traditional Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method is time consuming for the low possibilities of the pipeline failure. The artificial neural network(ANN) is preferable for the complex nonlinear situation. An optimization of artificial neural network modeling methodology for the reliability assessment of corroding natural gas pipelines is proposed in this paper. To ...
7 CitationsSource
#1Guoyang Fu (Monash University, Clayton campus)H-Index: 12
#2Wei Yang (VU: Victoria University, Australia)H-Index: 23
Last. Sujeeva Setunge (RMIT: RMIT University)H-Index: 26
view all 5 authors...
This paper presents a reliability-based methodology for assessing fracture failures of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits. Based on newly developed models of elastic fracture toughness, the simple criterion of stress intensity factor (SIF) is used to establish the limit state functions for pipes with sharp corrosion pits in the longitudinal and circumferential directions. A stochastic model of load effect is developed and a time-dependent reliability method based on first passage probability ...
2 CitationsSource