Physics

Trajectory

Mathematics

Statistics

Astronomy

Multinomial logistic regression

Developmental psychology

Psychology

Latent class model

Journal of Youth and Adolescence

This article identifies the arrest trajectories of youth from ages 12 through 24 years old and tests hypotheses derived from Moffitt’s developmental taxonomic theory of crime concerning the impact of various emotional disturbances on the specific trajectories of the youth involved. The study uses exclusively administrative data sets and includes a gender and racially diverse sample of 10,360 youth (30.7 % females) who were arrested at least once between ages 12 and 24 in the early 2000s. Latent class growth analysis was employed in order to identify distinct arrest trajectories of youth in the sample. Multinomial logistic regression was used to identify diagnostic and other characteristics associated with membership in the specific trajectories predicted by Moffitt’s theory. Five trajectory classes were identified, 3 of which were consistent with taxonomic theory including high and classic adolescence limited trajectory classes and a “snared adolescence limited class” described more recently by Moffitt. The distribution of youth among the 5 classes was very different for those with and without emotional disturbances. Youth with emotional disturbances in their late adolescent years were more likely to fall into the high arrest trajectory class and much less likely to fall into the low arrest trajectory class. Compared to youth without an emotional disturbance, youth with psychotic disorders were more than twice as likely to fall into the high as into the low arrest trajectory class. Youth with disruptive behavior disorders were more than twice as likely to fall into the high and intermediate classes as into the low trajectory class. Anxiety and depressive disorders were not associated with significantly greater likelihood of falling into any one of the trajectory classes. Youth in the snared adolescence limited class were more likely than those in the classic adolescence limited class to be male, black versus white and in the foster care enrollment category lending some support to Moffitt’s conceptualization of this class as an adolescence limited class composed of youth who are snared by involvement in the criminal justice and or social services systems. Implications of these results for public policy and the study of adolescence are discussed.

The Impact of Emotional Disturbances on the Arrest Trajectories of Youth as They Transition into Young Adulthood