Hit or Miss: What Leads Experts to Take Advice for Long-Term Judgments?

Managers and policy makers frequently face crucial strategic decisions that inevitably rely on judgments about relevant future events. These judgments are often characterized by very high uncertainty and the absence of experience from previous good or bad judgments. Judgments of other experts are oftentimes an important—sometimes the only—source of additional information to reduce uncertainty and improve judgment accuracy. However, in many...