Robert S. Erikson
Columbia University
Positive economicsErikson's stages of psychosocial developmentPublic opinionPolitical economyEconometricsIdeologyEconomicsMacroPolitical sciencePresidential systemLawEconomic indicatorPresidential electionState (polity)PolityPublic administrationPublic relationsVotingDemocracyPolitics
157Publications
49H-index
8,293Citations
Publications 145
Newest
#1Robert S. Erikson (Columbia University)H-Index: 49
#2Pablo M. Pinto (Columbia University)H-Index: 12
Last. Kelly Rader (Columbia University)H-Index: 7
view all 3 authors...
Among IR scholars, a central empirical proposition is that democracies seek out other democracies as trading partners—the so-called democratic trade hypothesis. Yet, as revealed in a 2001 symposium on Green et al.’s “Dirty Pool” testing this hypothesis is entangled in debates over the appropriate statistical techniques and research design. We use this controversy as a springboard to offer a cautionary tale about how a large data set with a massive N can create overconfidence in hypothesis testin...
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#1Robert S. Erikson (Columbia University)H-Index: 49
#2Christopher Wlezien (TU: Temple University)H-Index: 45
On the eve of the election, the impending result of the presidential vote can be seen fairly clearly from trial-heat polls. Earlier in the election year, the polls offer much less information about what will happen on Election Day (see Campbell 2008 ; Wlezien and Erikson 2002 ). The polls capture preferences to the moment and do not—because they cannot—anticipate how preferences will evolve in the future, as the campaign unfolds. Various things ultimately impact the final vote. The standing of t...
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#1Robert S. Erikson (Columbia University)H-Index: 49
#2Christopher Wlezien (University of Texas at Austin)H-Index: 45
Election markets have been praised for their ability to forecast election outcomes, and to forecast better than trial-heat polls. This paper challenges that optimistic assessment of election markets, based on an analysis of Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) data from presidential elections between 1988 and 2004. We argue that it is inappropriate to naively compare market forecasts of an election outcome with exact poll results on the day prices are recorded, that is, market prices reflect forecasts o...
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#1Robert S. Erikson (Columbia University)H-Index: 49
#2Christopher Wlezien (TU: Temple University)H-Index: 45
Everybody knows that "the economy" matters in presidential elections, but how can one incorporate economic information in an early forecasting equation? Our economic forecasting tool is the cumulative growth of leading indicators during a presidential term--weighting recent growth most heavily--which provides an early warning, as early as quarter 1 of the election year, about the Election Day economy. To control for other, non-economic factors, our model also includes presidential approval or tr...
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ABSTRACT Recent scholarship has attempted to restore the reputation of the American electorate, even though its level of political interest and information has not measurably increased. Scott Althaus’s Collective Preferences in Democratic Politics challenges this revisionist optimism, arguing that opinion polls misrepresent the interests of a large segment of society, and that they therefore get too much attention as a guide to policy makers, because those being polled are so ill informed. But A...
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for some time now, our team has reported states' ideological preferences as the mean ideological selfidentification of respondents in CBS News/New York Times polls (Wright, Erikson, and Mclver 1985; Erikson, Wright, and Mclver 1993). l Recently, Brace et al. (2002, 2004) have reported measuring state ideological self-identification using data from the American National Election Studies (NES) and the General Social Survey (GSS) surveys.2 Using these two independent datasets, both teams of researc...
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In just 13 pages, Warren Miller and Donald Stokes's “Constituency Influence in Congress” established the agenda for the next half-century of research on congressional representation. Along with its sister paper, “Party Government and the Salience of Congress” (Stokes and Miller 1962 ), “Constituency Influence” famously documents the general impoverishment of voters' knowledge of Congress and its members. Of at least equal importance is its analysis of congressional behavior as a response to oft-...
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#1Robert S. EriksonH-Index: 49
#2Gerald C. WrightH-Index: 30
Last. John P. McIverH-Index: 7
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The horse race of election campaigns is of great interest to scholars of public opinion and the public itself (Iyengar, Norpoth, and Hahn, 2004). In the modern day, in most every democratic country, we have a stream of polls registering electoral preferences during campaigns. In some countries, not a day goes by without a new poll release from one survey house or another. We thus have a lot of data at hand to assess the evolution of preferences over time. The problem is that the different survey...
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