Forrest D. Nelson
College of Business Administration
Limited dependent variableHeteroscedasticityStatisticsFinancial economicsFutures contractSpecificationBusinessEconometricsRegression analysisActuarial scienceEconomicsVariety (universal algebra)Tobit modelEconometric modelProbitCensoring (statistics)Simultaneous equations modelConsistency (negotiation)VariablesElectronic marketsPrediction marketApplied mathematicsSingle equationComputer algorithmMathematicsComputer scienceNon-linear least squaresCausal chainEstimationCensored regression model
38Publications
20H-index
2,981Citations
Publications 28
Newest
#1Michael BerlemannH-Index: 17
#2Forrest D. NelsonH-Index: 20
While there are various techniques of inflation forecasting in use, none of them has proved to deliver consistently more accurate forecasts than the others. That is why most users of inflation forecasts monitor a variety of inflation indicators and forecasts and check them for consistency. This paper aims at contributing to an extension of the methods in use. We show that experimental inflation forecasting markets are highly useful in uncovering market participants’ inflation expectations. We al...
#1David L. Kelly (UM: University of Miami)H-Index: 13
#2David Letson (UM: University of Miami)H-Index: 22
Last. Daniel Solis (UM: University of Miami)H-Index: 15
view all 5 authors...
How do decision makers weight private and official information sources which are correlated and differ in accuracy and bias? This paper studies how traders update subjective risk perceptions after receiving expert opinions, using a unique data set from a prediction market, the Hurricane Futures Market (HFM). We derive a theoretical Bayesian framework which predicts how traders update the probability of a hurricane making landfall in a certain range of coastline, after receiving correlated track ...
20 CitationsSource
#1Philip M. PolgreenH-Index: 40
#2Forrest D. NelsonH-Index: 20
4 CitationsSource
#1Philip M. Polgreen (Roy J. and Lucille A. Carver College of Medicine)H-Index: 40
#2Yiling Chen (UI: University of Iowa)H-Index: 33
Last. Robert A. WeinsteinH-Index: 81
view all 4 authors...
The Internet is an important source of health information. Thus, the frequency of Internet searches may provide information regarding infectious disease activity. As an example, we examined the relationship between searches for influenza and actual influenza occurrence. Using search queries from the Yahoo! search engine (http://search.yahoo.com) from March 2004 through May 2008, we counted daily unique queries originating in the United States that contained influenza-related search terms. Counts...
439 CitationsSource
#1Kenneth J. Arrow (Stanford University)H-Index: 115
#2Robert Forsythe (USF: University of South Florida)H-Index: 29
Last. Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth College)H-Index: 29
view all 22 authors...
The ability of groups of people to make predictions is a potent research tool that should be freed of unnecessary government restrictions.
244 CitationsSource
#1Joyce E. Berg (UI: University of Iowa)H-Index: 16
#2Forrest D. Nelson (UI: University of Iowa)H-Index: 20
Last. Thomas A. Rietz (UI: University of Iowa)H-Index: 21
view all 3 authors...
"Prediction markets" are designed specifically to forecast events such as elections. Though election prediction markets have been being conducted for almost twenty years, to date nearly all of the evidence on efficiency compares election eve forecasts with final pre-election polls and actual outcomes. Here, we present evidence that prediction markets outperform polls for longer horizons. We gather national polls for the 1988 through 2004 U.S. Presidential elections and ask whether either the pol...
231 CitationsSource
#1Joyce E. Berg (UI: University of Iowa)H-Index: 16
#2Robert Forsythe (UI: University of Iowa)H-Index: 29
Last. Thomas A. Rietz (UI: University of Iowa)H-Index: 21
view all 4 authors...
Publisher Summary Each market is related to a specific future event, for instance a presidential election, and contains a set of contracts with liquidation values pegged to the outcome of the future event. Contracts enter into circulation by the voluntary purchase from the IEM trading system of bundles of contracts that we call “unit portfolios,” or they are removed from circulation by sales of unit portfolios back to the system. These unit portfolios consist of one of each contract available in...
66 CitationsSource
#1Vernon L. Smith (Chapman University)H-Index: 103
#2Kenneth J. Arrow (Stanford University)H-Index: 115
Last. Justin Wolfers (IfW: Kiel Institute for the World Economy)H-Index: 62
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Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has the potential to stimulate...
11 CitationsSource
#1Philip M. Polgreen (Roy J. and Lucille A. Carver College of Medicine)H-Index: 40
#2Forrest D. Nelson (UI: University of Iowa)H-Index: 20
Last. Robert A. WeinsteinH-Index: 81
view all 4 authors...
Prediction markets have accurately forecasted the outcomes of a wide range of future events, including sales of computer printers, elections, and the Federal Reserve’s decisions about interest rates. We propose that prediction markets may be useful for tracking and forecasting emerging infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian influenza, by aggregating expert opinion quickly, accurately, and inexpensively. Data from a pilot study in the state of Iowa suggest that t...
84 CitationsSource
#1Philip M. Polgreen (Roy J. and Lucille A. Carver College of Medicine)H-Index: 40
#2Forrest D. Nelson (UI: University of Iowa)H-Index: 20
Last. George R. NeumannH-Index: 26
view all 3 authors...
Public health agencies conduct surveillance for a number of infectious diseases and related phenomena. Typically, the collected information is used to help public health officials, researchers, and health care professionals cope with and plan for future disease activity. In many cases, however, such information is no longer particularly relevant for clinical purposes when it becomes widely available. For example, influenza surveillance data are usually at least one to two weeks old by the time t...
22 CitationsSource