Geology

Sea surface temperature

Forcing (mathematics)

Oceanography

Walker circulation

Climatology

Environmental science

Science China Earth Sciences

The evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific during 2020–2021 indicates a second-year cooling in late 2021 again, following the 2020 La Niña event. Its physical explanations are still lacking, and there is a clear need to understand the underlying processes involved. Observational data and reanalysis products are used to describe the characteristics and spatiotemporal evolution of upper-ocean thermal anomalies; an intermediate coupled model (ICM) is also used to perform numerical experiments to confirm these observation-based inferences. The evolution of subsurface thermal anomalies is critically important to that of SST in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific; the effects of the former on the latter can be well represented by the temperature of subsurface waters entrained into the mixed layer (Te), a field that reflects a subsurface forcing on SST. The SST evolution is sensitively dependent on the intensities of the local effect associated with Te anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the remote effect associated with subsurface anomalies from the western Pacific. During early- and mid-2021, a competition was present between these local and remote effects associated with Te anomalies. When the remote warming effect dominates the local cooling effect, the cold SST condition in the east is likely to turn into neutral and warm conditions; otherwise, it tends to continue. In addition, the negative Te anomalies were sustained and enhanced by off-equatorial processes due to equatorial wave reflections at the eastern boundary associated with the 2020 La Niña event. The SST evolution in mid-2021 corresponded to a situation in which the warming effect associated with positive subsurface thermal anomalies from the west were not strong enough to counteract the local cooling effect associated with negative anomalies in the east. In due course, cold SST anomalies in the east developed again and the second-year cooling reoccurred in late 2021, with a turning point in June 2021. Modeling experiments support these arguments and indicate that the intensity of subsurface thermal effect on SST, as represented by Te anomalies, needs to be adequately depicted for coupled models to capture the 2021 second-year cooling conditions in the tropical Pacific.

The 2020–2021 prolonged La Niña evolution in the tropical Pacific