Macroeconomics

Theoretical physics

Monetary policy

Inflation (cosmology)

Bayesian probability

Statistics

Shock (circulatory)

Interest rate

Archaeology

Variable (mathematics)

Economics

Development economics

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Physics

Exchange rate

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium

Mathematics

Geography

Monetary economics

Quarter (Canadian coin)

Econometrics

Infectious disease (medical specialty)

Internal medicine

Mathematical analysis

Medicine

Pandemic

Bayesian vector autoregression

Disease

Pathology

Economies

Facing the current complicated situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to medical efforts on disease prevention and treatment, governments of countries also have to come up with solutions to deal with the negative impacts of the pandemic on the economy. This study aims to provide specific, comprehensive, and scientific estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Vietnamese economy. By using the Bayesian method to estimate DSGE models, research results show that a shock increase by one standard deviation (about 1.49% increase in the probability of a COVID-19 outbreak) to the Covid status variable immediately reduces the output gap by 0.94%. However, this effect only lasts for one quarter, and the output gap widens again. Meanwhile, refinancing interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate changes also have an immediate decline in response to this shock, but the magnitude of the reduction is relatively small.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Economic Growth and Monetary Policy: An Analysis from the DSGE Model in Vietnam