Finance

Supply chain

Pathology

Business

International trade

Supply chain risk management

Tariff

Disease

Force majeure

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Infectious disease (medical specialty)

Pandemic

Risk analysis (engineering)

Marketing

Political science

Order (exchange)

Artificial intelligence

Management

Economics

Computer science

Flexibility (engineering)

Industrial organization

Supply chain management

Service management

Medicine

System dynamics

Foreign Trade Review

Epidemic outbreaks are one of the important sources of the risk in the global supply chains. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global industries that were unprepared for disruptions experienced a decline due to the pandemic. A global supply chain is a complex system set of dynamics that could be analyzed by the system dynamics approach. In this article, the impact of the recent pandemic on the global supply chain is simulated in different scenarios. A system dynamic model is developed to carry out the simulations. In order to consider the impact of the pandemic on the exogenous and endogenous variables, a force majeure factor is defined in the model. Global features considered in this article are the export and import operations, the exchange rate and the rate of tariff. In this article, a scenario analysis is performed to analyze two important factors of the global supply chain: force majeure factor and delivery delay. Results showed that improving the flexibility of production capacity is one of the important strategies that global supply chain managers should pursue. JEL Codes: F23, P45, C15, C63, E37, F17

The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Supply Chain Operations: A System Dynamics Approach