Algorithm

Composite number

Ecology

Biology

Developing country

Materials science

Panel data

Economics

Computer science

Development economics

Carbon fibers

Computer network

Greenhouse gas

Threshold model

Middle income

Mathematics

Urbanization

Demographic economics

Econometrics

Environmental science

Composite material

Panel analysis

Economic growth

Natural resource economics

Sustainable Production and Consumption

Better use of official development assistance (ODA) to mitigate carbon emissions in developing countries requires a better understanding of the effects of ODA on carbon emissions. The dynamic panel threshold regression model is employed to explore the effects of ODA and carbon emissions in 59 low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Urbanization is employed as a threshold variable. The proposed model can better reflect endogenous explanatory variables, which indicate the inertial characteristics and dynamic changes of carbon emissions. The first-order lag coefficients of carbon emissions in the proposed model have a significant positive effect, indicating that the growth of carbon emissions in these countries has a strong path dependence. Moreover, when the urbanization of recipient countries is below the threshold value, a 1% increase in ODA leads to a 0.2259% increase in carbon emissions. When urbanization exceeds the threshold value, a 1% increase in ODA leads to a 0.2281% increase in carbon emission. In addition, the conditional convergence level of carbon emission growth in low-urbanization areas is much greater than that in high-urbanization areas. With the development in urbanization, if no effective measures are developed and implemented, there is a risk that carbon emissions of recipient countries might develop from “low-emission balanced growth” to “high-emission balanced growth.”

Official development assistance and carbon emissions of recipient countries: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for low- and lower-middle-income countries