Biology

Statistics

Biochemistry

Botany

Incubation period

Fungus

Mathematics

Econometrics

Spore

Mycosphaerella

Sexual reproduction

Seasonality

Biological system

Incubation

Applied Mathematical Modelling

Black Sigatoka Disease, also called Black Leaf Streak Disease (BLSD), is caused by the fungus Mycosphaerella fijiensis and is arguably one of the most important pathogens affecting the banana and plantain industries. Theoretical results on its dynamics are rare, even though theoretical descriptions of epidemics of plant diseases are valuable steps toward their efficient management. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model describing the dynamics of BLSD on banana or plantain leaves within a whole field of plants. The model consists of a system of periodic non-autonomous differential equations with a time delay that accounts for the time of incubation ofM. fijiensis' spores. We compute the basic reproduction number of the disease and show that it does not depend on the time delay, meaning that the persistence of BLSD would not qualitatively change even if the incubation period of the pathogen is perturbed. We derive local and global long-term dynamics of the disease and provide numerical simulations to illustrate our results.

Mathematical modelling of Banana Black Sigatoka Disease with delay and Seasonality