Global estimates of expected and preventable cervical cancers among girls born between 2005 and 2014: a birth cohort analysis

Published on Jul 1, 2021in The Lancet. Public health16.292
· DOI :10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00046-3
Maxime Bonjour1
Estimated H-index: 1
(IARC: International Agency for Research on Cancer),
Hadrien Charvat3
Estimated H-index: 3
(IARC: International Agency for Research on Cancer)
+ 4 AuthorsIacopo Baussano22
Estimated H-index: 22
(IARC: International Agency for Research on Cancer)
Sources
Abstract
Summary Background WHO has launched an initiative aiming to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. Elimination is a long-term target that needs long-lasting commitment. To support local authorities in implementing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, we provide regional and country-specific estimates of cervical cancer burden and the projected impact of HPV vaccination among today's young girls who could develop cervical cancer if not vaccinated. Methods The expected number of cervical cancer cases in the absence of vaccination among girls born between 2005 and 2014 was quantified by combining age-specific incidence rates from GLOBOCAN 2018 and cohort-specific mortality rates by age from UN demographic projections. Preventable cancers were estimated on the basis of HPV prevalence reduction attributable to vaccination and the relative contribution of each HPV type to cervical cancer incidence. We assessed the number of cervical cancer cases preventable through vaccines targeting HPV types 16 and 18, with and without cross-protection, and through vaccines targeting HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. Findings Globally, without vaccination, the burden of cervical cancer in these birth cohorts is expected to reach 11·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 11·4–12·0) cases by 2094. Approximately 75% of the burden will be concentrated in 25 countries mostly located in Africa and Asia, where the future number of cases is expected to increase manyfold, reaching 5·6 million (5·4–6·0) cases in Africa and 4·5 million (4·4–4·6) cases in Asia. Worldwide immunisation with an HPV vaccine targeted to HPV types 16 and 18, with cross-protection against HPV types 31, 33, and 45, could prevent about 8·7 million (8·5–9·0) cases. Interpretation Detailed estimates of the increasing burden of cervical cancer and projected impact of HPV vaccination is of immediate relevance to public health decision makers. Shifting the focus of projections towards recently born girls who could develop cervical cancer if not vaccinated is fundamental to overcome stakeholders' hesitancy towards HPV vaccination. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Canadian Institutes of Health Research.
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Background Bhutan implemented a national program for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in 2010 involving girls aged 12 to 18 years and achieving nearly 90% coverage. Objective To estimate HPV vaccine effectiveness in a city in Bhutan. Design 2 cross-sectional surveys, 2011-2012 and 2018. Setting 2 hospitals in Thimphu, capital of Bhutan. Participants Sexually active women aged 17 to 29 years: 1445 participants from the baseline survey and 1595 from the repeated survey. Intervention National...
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Introduction Estimating the value of providing effective healthcare interventions in a country requires an assessment of whether the improvement in health outcomes they offer exceeds the improvement in health that would have been possible if the resources required had, instead, been made available for other healthcare activities in that country. This potential alternative use of the same resources represents the health opportunity cost of providing the intervention. Without such assessments, the...
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Summary Background The Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) has been used around the world to assess the health impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in girls. We updated PRIME with new data and methods for demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden, and generated revised estimates of the health impact of HPV vaccination at the global, regional, and national levels for 177 countries. Methods PRIME was updated with po...
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Summary Background WHO is developing a global strategy towards eliminating cervical cancer as a public health problem, which proposes an elimination threshold of four cases per 100 000 women and includes 2030 triple-intervention coverage targets for scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to 90%, twice-lifetime cervical screening to 70%, and treatment of pre-invasive lesions and invasive cancer to 90%. We assessed the impact of achieving the 90–70–90 triple-intervention targets on cer...
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Summary Background The WHO Director-General has issued a call for action to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To help inform global efforts, we modelled potential human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical screening scenarios in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) to examine the feasibility and timing of elimination at different thresholds, and to estimate the number of cervical cancer cases averted on the path to elimination. Methods The WHO Cervica...
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#2G. Lavanya (HBNI: Homi Bhabha National Institute)H-Index: 2
Last. N. Amornwichet (Chula: Chulalongkorn University)H-Index: 6
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Cervical cancer is one of the most common cancers in developing nations. It has had a tremendous impact on the lifetime of millions of women over the last century and continues to do so. In this collaborative clinicians' review, we highlight the incidence, treatment and clinical outcomes of cervical cancer in low-income (LICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) across Asia, South America, South Africa and Eastern Europe. With the cervical cancer burden and locally advanced cancers bein...
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HPV, a sexually transmitted viral infection, is the etiological agent of significant dermatologic disease including benign anogenital warts and invasive cancers. Sexual and gender minority individuals are particularly vulnerable to HPV-associated disease due to reduced vaccination rates in these cohorts, low awareness of HPV, lack of provider recommendation, and inadequate consensus guidelines on screening and prevention in these individuals. A targeted approach is needed with regards to vaccina...
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