Combinatorics

Accounting

Sharpe ratio

Minimum-variance unbiased estimator

Capital asset pricing model

Equity (law)

Mathematics

Kernel (algebra)

Financial economics

Statistics

Mean squared error

Political science

Econometrics

Economics

Variance risk premium

Conditional expectation

Variance (accounting)

Conditional variance

Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity

Market portfolio

Portfolio

Volatility risk premium

Stochastic discount factor

Stochastic volatility

Volatility (finance)

The Journal of Finance

ABSTRACT Under mild assumptions, we recover the model‐free conditional minimum variance projection of the pricing kernel on various tradeable realized moments of market returns. Recovered conditional moments predict future realizations and give insight into the cyclicality of equity premia, variance risk premia, and the highest attainable Sharpe ratios under the minimum variance probability. The pricing kernel projections are often U ‐shaped and give rise to optimal conditional portfolio strategies with plausible market timing properties, moderate countercyclical exposures to higher realized moments, and favorable out‐of‐sample Sharpe ratios.

(Almost) Model‐Free Recovery