Epidemic model

Demography

Ecology

Biology

Statistics

Economics

Computer science

Exponential growth

Estimation

Database

Reproduction

Mathematics

Management

Exponential function

Econometrics

Population

Sociology

Mathematical analysis

Measure (data warehouse)

Maximum likelihood

Basic reproduction number

Infectious Disease Modelling

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time. For fast epidemics, the estimation is subject to over-fitting due to the limited number of data points available, which also limits our choice of models for the epidemic curve. We discuss the estimation of the growth rate using maximum likelihood method and simple models.

Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number