Demography

Injury prevention

Suicide prevention

Odds

Human factors and ergonomics

Longitudinal study

Psychiatry

Medical emergency

Occupational safety and health

Poison control

Internal medicine

Sociology

Mental health

Odds ratio

Distress

Medicine

Clinical psychology

Logistic regression

Pathology

BMC Psychiatry

Limited research exists concerning the long-term effects of avalanches on survivors’ mental health beyond the first years after the accident. The aims of this study were to describe and evaluate possible differences in long-term mental health symptoms after a major avalanche disaster between exposed and unexposed soldiers using a longitudinal design. Present mental health symptoms were examined among avalanche exposed (n = 12) and unexposed (n = 9) soldiers by PTSS-10, IES-15 and STAI-12 in four waves (1986–1987 and 2016). Binary logistic regression revealed that the odds to score above the cut-off were significantly lower for both groups after one year compared to baseline for PTSS-10 (p = 0.018) and significantly lower after 30 days compared to baseline for IES-15 (p = 0.005). Data did not reveal significant differences between the exposed and unexposed groups regarding adjusted PTSS-10, IES-15 or STAI-12 mean scores compared. Linear mixed model-analyses revealed significant effects of time. The adjusted mean scores declined over time for both groups: PTSS-10 (p = 0.001), IES-15 (p = 0.026) and STAI-12 (p = 0.001), and the time trajectories for PTSS-10 were significantly different between the groups (p = 0.013). Although not significant (all p > 0.05), results indicated that a larger proportion of soldiers in the exposed group experienced posttraumatic stress symptoms (5/12) (PTSS-10 score ≥ 4) and distress symptoms (6/12) (IES-15 score ≥ 26) above cut-off points, 30 years post-disaster. The course of mental health symptoms may persist, and even increase, in selected and trained military personnel 30 years after exposure to a natural disaster. These findings may be of great importance for health authorities planning appropriate follow-up.

The trajectory of symptom burden in exposed and unexposed survivors of a major avalanche disaster: a 30 year long-term follow-up study