Drainage basin

Climatology

Flood myth

Geotechnical engineering

Cartography

Archaeology

Computer science

100-year flood

Inflow

Memoir

Geology

Streamflow

Oceanography

Thermodynamics

Physics

Climate change

Organic chemistry

Geography

Hydrology (agriculture)

Historical record

Hazard

Environmental science

Chemistry

Proxy (statistics)

Resilience (materials science)

Meteorology

Art history

Machine learning

Dam failure

Geophysical Research Letters

Existing major reservoirs in California, with average age above 50 years, were built in the previous century with limited data records and flood hazard assessment. Changes in climate and land use are anticipated to alter statistical properties of inflow to these infrastructure systems and potentially increase their hydrological failure probability. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of infrastructure incidents, revisiting dam failure risks associated with possible shifts in the streamflow regime is fundamental for societal resilience. Here we compute historical and projected flood return periods as a proxy for potential changes in the risk of hydrological failure of dams in a warming climate. Our results show that hydrological failure probability is likely to increase for most dams in California by 2100. Noticeably, the New Don Pedro, Shasta, Lewiston, and Trinity Dams are associated with highest potential changes in flood hazard.

Climate‐Induced Changes in the Risk of Hydrological Failure of Major Dams in California