Northern Hemisphere

Holocene

Climatology

Coupled model intercomparison project

Precipitation

Monsoon

Climate model

Geology

Oceanography

Forcing (mathematics)

Greenhouse gas

Global warming

Climate change

Southern Hemisphere

Geography

Environmental science

Orbital forcing

General Circulation Model

Meteorology

Atmospheric sciences

Insolation

Geophysical Research Letters

Precipitation and circulation patterns of Northern Hemisphere monsoons are investigated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations for mid‐Holocene and future climate scenario rcp8.5. Although both climates exhibit Northern Hemisphere warming and enhanced interhemispheric thermal contrast in boreal summer, changes in the spatial extent and rainfall intensity in future climate are smaller than in mid‐Holocene for all Northern Hemisphere monsoons except the Indian monsoon. A decomposition of the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic contributions suggests that under future global warming, the weaker response of the African, Indian, and North American monsoons results from a compensation between both components. The dynamic component, primarily constrained by changes in net energy input over land, determines instead most of the mid‐Holocene land monsoonal rainfall response.

Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Response to Mid‐Holocene Orbital Forcing and Greenhouse Gas‐Induced Global Warming