Quantum mechanics

Indian ocean

Geology

Oceanography

Physics

Dipole

Indian Ocean Dipole

Environmental science

Atmospheric sciences

Chinese Science Bulletin (Chinese Version)

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the equatorial Indian Ocean are two major natural variabilities on seasonal and inter-annual timescales. In this study, null the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model, null finite volume version 2 (FGOALS-f2), null sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate prediction system, null was used to make a seasonal prediction for autumn and winter 2018–2019. The FGOALS-f2 S2S prediction system was developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), null Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), null Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), null and is run on Chinas Tianhe-2 supercomputer located at the National Supercomputer Center in Guangzhou, null China. The model used in the prediction system is CAS FGOALS-f2, null which is a next-generation climate system model of LASG-IAP, null representing the interaction between the atmosphere, null oceans, null land, null and sea ice. The seasonal prediction products from this system have been submitted to and used operationally by the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration, null as well as the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China, null since June 2017. The FGOALS-f2 S2S prediction system has achieved 37 a retrospective forecasts (reforecasts) covering the period 1981–2017. The reforecast experiments include 24 ensemble members, null while the real-time prediction uses 35 ensemble members. The latest prediction results, null in July 2018, null reveal that: (1) A positive IOD will persist through autumn and winter 2018–2019, null and the peak phase will be in October with an amplitude of approximately 0.4°C. Based on the 37 a reforecasts predicted from each July 20th, null the one-month-lead prediction skill of the IOD is 0.82 in the IOD prediction of July, null and the five-month-lead prediction skill is 0.56. (2) In the equatorial Pacific Ocean, null the prediction results reveal a Moderate El Nino is under development, null and Nino3.4 index values may reach approximately 1.3°C. Based on the 37 a reforecasts predicted from each July 20th, null the one-month lead prediction skill of the Nino3.4 index is 0.97 in the ENSO prediction of July, null and the six-month lead prediction skill is 0.83. (3) The Moderate El Nino and positive IOD may induce a weak China winter monsoon, null characterized by a warm winter. For North China, null the meteorological conditions are expected to have adverse effects on atmospheric diffusion; while for South China, null warm and wet conditions are likely to prevail, null since the lower-level jet of the Indian Ocean is predicted to strengthen. null To better predict the equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific and Indian oceans, null the FGOALS-f2 S2S climate prediction team will continue to update the prediction results on the 20th of every month, null releasing them (with respect to ENSO, null the IOD, null climate, null and average monthly weather in China) on the website, null and report the latest prediction results via the WeChat public platform.

Outlook for El Ni&amp;ntilde;o and the Indian Ocean Dipole in autumn-winter 2018&amp;ndash;2019

Outlook for El Ni&amp;ntilde;o and the Indian Ocean Dipole in autumn-winter 2018&amp;ndash;2019

Outlook for El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole in autumn-winter 2018–2019