Climate change

Neoclassical economics

Archaeology

Metric (unit)

Ranking (information retrieval)

Social cost

Biology

Machine learning

Economic cost

Political science

China

Economics

Geography

Natural resource economics

Ecology

Operations management

Damages

Context (archaeology)

Climate policy

Computer science

Global climate

Environmental science

Tonne

Nature Climate Change

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a commonly employed metric of the expected economic damages from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Although useful in an optimal policy context, a world-level approach obscures the heterogeneous geography of climate damage and vast differences in country-level contributions to the global SCC, as well as climate and socio-economic uncertainties, which are larger at the regional level. Here we estimate country-level contributions to the SCC using recent climate model projections, empirical climate-driven economic damage estimations and socio-economic projections. Central specifications show high global SCC values (median, US$417 per tonne of CO2 (tCO2); 66% confidence intervals, US$177–805 per tCO2) and a country-level SCC that is unequally distributed. However, the relative ranking of countries is robust to different specifications: countries that incur large fractions of the global cost consistently include India, China, Saudi Arabia and the United States. Global estimates of the economic impacts of CO2 emissions may obscure regional heterogeneities. A modular framework for estimating the country-level social cost of carbon shows consistently unequal country-level costs.

Country-level social cost of carbon